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地球温暖化危機説？？

毎年夏というか暖候期に台風が襲来するが、台風が本土に上陸して川が氾濫したり、堤防が決壊したり、家が流されたりと犠牲者がでると、きまって地球温暖化のため台風が巨大化していると解説・説明される。気象予報士の先生やＮＨＫではスパコン計算士の偉い先生が登場してそう言う。本当に台風が巨大化しているのか？

　台風の巨大さを示す指標にはその中心気圧を比べるのがいい。台風は中心気圧が低いほど風雨が強烈であり暴風圏も広い。中心気圧の示度の低さと台風の巨大さは強い相関関係がある。台風の巨大さを検討するには中心気圧を見るのがいいということに理系の方も異論はなかろう。

もちろん風速とか暴風圏の大きさとか他の要素も併用したらよりいいだろうが、ひとつ選ぶとすれば中心気圧だ。日本の気象観測史上に燦然と輝く？巨大台風の上位の観測記録を種々の資料で調べてみた。

日本本土に上陸した台風の上陸時の中心気圧の低い方から並べると（小数点以下は切捨て）
1位 室戸台風　　 911ヘクトパスカル 1934年
2位 枕崎台風 　　916ヘクトパスカル 1945年
3位 第二室戸台風 925ヘクトパスカル 1961年
4位 伊勢湾台風 　929ヘクトパスカル 1959年

洋上の島嶼の観測所の実測値はものすごい。
1位 沖永良部島台風 907ヘクトパスカル 1977年
2位 宮古島台風 　　908ヘクトパスカル 1959年

台風の洋上にあったときに観測された実測値はすごい。
1位 20号台風 870ヘクトパスカル 1979年

　最後列の発生年に着目していただきたい。本土上陸の最強台風の室戸台風は74年も大昔であり、2位の枕崎台風は63年もこれも大昔だ。観測史上の巨大台風の上位群は数十年前のものが占めているのだ。近年はせいぜい950ヘクトパスカル程度の台風しか来ていない。

これでは近年地球温暖化により台風が巨大化していると解説するのにはかなり無理がある。彼らの解説・説明と気象観測史上の実測値との間には、大きな乖離があり、整合性が全くない。これらの観測事実を無視して台風が巨大化していると説明する裏には、とにかく「温暖化して大変だ、危機だ」と煽りたい意図を感じるが……。

温暖化は憂うべきことだろうか？

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